10.16.08
Vartan Gregorian on Library Funding
I talked with Vartan Gregorian, president of Carnegie Corporation of New York, yesterday afternoon about the library funding outlook. The view from the man often credited with making library fundraising chic (as president of the New York Public Library for eight years from 1981 to 1989) was optimistic but modulated by some pretty shocking numbers.
“Whenever there has been a budget crisis,” Gregorian said, “libraries are affected immediately because municipalities always make cuts across the board, in order to be even-handed.” In his opinion, “that’s wrong because library budgets are so small relative to every other agency.” He also noted that during times of crisis, libraries are used more heavily. Everybody I’ve talked to recently about the current financial crisis has pointed this out, and we have the survey evidence to support it: library use is up, as it was during the Great Depression, which Gregorian pointed out. But like all parts of the cultural scene, libraries are going to be affected by the debacle on Wall Street, “whether we like it or not,” he said.
I was more than a little shocked when I asked Gregorian to tell me what kind of impact this disaster will have on philanthropy. “Oh yes, this year all the institutions will have major losses in their endowment,” he said. “I would not be surprised if we lose anywhere from $500 million to $600 million dollars on the endowment.” After lifting my jaw enough to speak, I asked when that would manifest itself in Carnegie Corporation’s giving level, and he said that the organization still has$30 million to give this year and those commitments are “our #1 piority.” He explained that because money is awarded on the basis of average earnings from previous 12 quarters, or a three-year average, the Corporation expects to meet those commitments. This year’s earning were low, Gregorian said, ”but for the last two or three years we were getting a 22% return.”
And beyond that? I asked him. He replied, “Foundations are losing their assets, and this will reflect, in our case, a year from now, maybe two years, we’ll be suffering the consequences.”
Gregorian’s main point during our conversation is that now is the time for us to make the case for libraries loud and clear, particularly here at ALA. Make the case for libraries, now, he said. “I don’t want libraries to go back to what they were in the 1970s, because when I came to New York…you needed a calculator and GPS to know which libraries are open what time and where and so on.” Librarians are wonderful because they always do more with less. As long as they don’t run out of less they’re fine, but we should also not run out of less, first not to accept less, but then not to run out of it. After all, like everything, giving is about priorities. I would just seize this. This is the time to alert about the importance of the library, not to assume the public knows it.
Geregorain urges us not to threaten to fold if we don’t get funded. ”When I came to the New York Public Library,” he siad, “there was a big ad put in the New York Times: ‘If you don’t help New York Public Library, it will become a big parking lot.’ Well, if you are dying, why should I help you? I’ll give you a good funeral. Librarians should insist that our existence is not in danger, can never be in danger. Our survival can never be in question. It’s the quality of our survival and quality of services, which is important to the public.” ”If you can make that case, nobody will put the library on the top of the cutting list but rather on the bottom,” he concluded.
Ray Lyons said,
October 17, 2008 at 11:56 am
Regarding surveys and statistics on library use, I have noticed in our profession a general confusion concerning what might be called “rules of evidence.” As with information resources in general, librarians strive to answer questions like, How accurate is the information? Is it authentic? Is it complete? Is it relevant to expressed information needs? Is it clear and understandable? Are the sources known to be reliable? and so on. But when it comes to library statistics and surveys our community seems to lack the wherewithal to examine the information sufficiently. Perhaps this is something of a shoemaker’s children syndrome, I don’t know.
Mr. Kniffel mentions that we have evidence supporting the idea that public library use increases when the U.S. economy experiences downturns—implying that this evidence is firm. I suspect he is referring to a 2001 ALA study on this topic (http://www.ala.org/ala/aboutala/offices/ors/reports/economichardtimestechnicalreport.pdf).
This ALA study surveyed 25 public libraries serving populations of 1 million or more (and got responses from 18 of these). The survey technique is what statisticians refer to as a “convenience sample.” Findings from surveys that use this sampling method must be interpreted quite narrowly, since the sample is an inadequate representation of the full population of interest—all American public libraries, in this case. Statisticians describe such samples as “biased.”
Because the ALA survey did not include roughly 95% of American public libraries and their communities, there is no way to know if the findings pertain to the majority of public libraries. The study results are, we might say, too information-poor to answer questions about public libraries nationwide. (The study is information-rich when it comes to drawing conclusions about the largest American public libraries.)
Mary Jo Lynch noted this deficiency in her article 2002 article in AL (http://www.ala.org/ala/aboutala/offices/ors/reports/economichard.cfm), although she did not seem particularly concerned about it. Statisticians, on the other hand, would wave a red flag here! At best, a statistician might be willing to say that the study “hints” at the possibility that increased library use could also be occurring among the bulk of libraries, also. But they never would cite the ALA study as evidence of this possibility.
This situation is even a bit sticker than this. As Lynch also notes, there is not much research on the topic of library use and economic conditions. One other study done in the 1980’s by Stephen E. James contradicts the 2001 study. Replication (repeatability) of findings is a strong tenet in scientific research. When studies disagree, we have to be even more discriminating, and conservative, about conclusions we draw. So I suggest that we say that we “believe” there is a connection between library use and the economy, but that the evidence is currently inconclusive.
AL Inside Scoop » A Year-End Message from Vartan Gregorian said,
December 22, 2008 at 4:03 pm
[...] My Librarian awards, and I had talked with Gregorian in New York during the presentation, and for Inside Scoop in October when the financial meltdown began. I’m sure he recognized the angst in my voice, along with [...]